Longwood Lecture Series "How to Predict Election Outcomes"

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Program Type: History & Genealogy, Lecture
Age Group: Adult
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Event Description

Stony Brook University Professor Dr. Helmut Norpoth, author of "The Primary Model", will be discussing the ability of the model to correctly predict presidential election outcomes.As the name indicates, the Primary Model relies on presidential primaries as a predictor of the vote in the general election; it also makes use of a swing of the electoral pendulum that is useful for forecasting (http://primarymodel.com/).  For the record, the Primary Model, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996.